Democrats Are Leading or Tied in Seven Battleground Governor’s Races, Poll Finds

The governor’s races in deep-red Kansas and Texas are effectively tied, while Democrats have an edge in Ohio and are ahead in Iowa, Alaska, Maine and Michigan, according to the final New York Times/Siena University polls before Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Amid deep frustration over the economy and an unpopular war in Iran, the results of the governor’s races are a signal of the political mood in the country.

In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott, in his bid for a fourth term, narrowly trails his Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, 47 percent to 48 percent. If elected, Ms. Hinojosa would be the first Hispanic woman to serve as governor of the state.

The Democratic candidate also has a narrow edge in Kansas, a state that Mr. Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024. Cindy Holscher, a state representative and the Democratic nominee, is up by 48 percent to 47 percent over Ty Masterson, the president of the State Senate.

And in Ohio, where the governor’s race has turned deeply negative, Amy Acton, the state’s former health director, has a four-percentage-point edge over Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican nominee, who has spent the last few weeks of the campaign running an explosive ad featuring Ms. Acton’s estranged mother.

Taken together, the polls underscore how a favorable political environment may be lifting up Democrats deep into Trump country — the polls also show advantages for Democrats in the Senate races, where they lead in six of the seven polled states and are only slightly behind in Iowa.

Across the seven states, six of which Mr. Trump won in 2024, the president’s approval rating stands at just 38 percent. Among his own voters, only half now say they strongly approve of his job performance.

In Texas, even as Mr. Abbott is trailing, he is doing far better than Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate for the Senate. Mr. Paxton, who the poll found is viewed unfavorably by more than half of Texans, trails James Talarico, the Democratic nominee, by seven percentage points.

Other high-quality polls in recent weeks have largely found Mr. Abbott with the edge in that state.

In Kansas, the tight race marks an improvement from last month for Ms. Holscher, when she trailed Mr. Masterson by five percentage points in a Times/Siena poll.

Ms. Holscher is now winning 11 percent of Republicans, and is ahead by 14 percentage points among independents, perhaps buoyed by the candidacy of Adam Hamilton, a Democrat who is leading his Senate race in the state by six percentage points.

The largest share of undecided voters in this group of governor’s polls is in Ohio, where 8 percent of voters have yet to make up their minds. There is some evidence that Mr. Ramaswamy’s negative focus has turned off voters. Among those who made up their minds in late October, Ms. Acton has the edge.

In the other four races, Democrats hold wide leads just days before the election.

In Alaska, which uses ranked-choice voting, Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins, the Democratic nominee, leads Bernadette Wilson, a conservative radio host, 54 percent to 46 percent.

And in Iowa, Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor, holds a six-percentage-point lead over Zach Lahn, a Republican businessman and farmer.

The widest leads are in Maine, where the Democrat Hannah Pingree has maintained a yawning 15-percentage-point lead over Bobby Charles, and in Michigan, where Jocelyn Benson, the Democratic secretary of state, leads John James by 12 percentage points.