I appreciate the emails I received from my two posts on starting a Substack. I am also grateful to David Lat who chatted with me at some length about the pros and cons of Substack. David has one of the most successful legal Substacks, so he knows the business well.
I’ll put my tentatively final thoughts up front: starting a paid Substack probably isn’t worth it.
First, David explained how conversion rate actually works. In short, almost all substacks from different tiers of subscriptions. Everyone can sign up for a free subscription that grants access to some content. Others sign up for a paid subscription that grants access to all content. The percentage of unpaid subscriptions that become paid is known as the conversion rate. I’ve seen some estimates that Substack conversion rates hover around 10%. For example, if you have 1,000 total subscribers, about 100 of them are paid. David relays that the average conversion rate is probably closer to 5%. With the same number, there may be about 50 paid subscribers.
Second, subscriber numbers are not static. People who cross the threshold to pay are very willing to cancel the subscription. If there is not enough content, they may think the price is not worth it, and unsubscribe. If there is too much content, and their inbox is being flooded, they may also unsubscribe. There is also a cyclical nature where people tire of a particular site and seek out other subscriptions. I’ve talked to several Substackers, and they all indicate that subscription numbers have largely plateaued. Once the market reaches its saturation rate, new subscribers are hard to fine. Plus, old substacks had something of a first mover advantage. New sites may struggle. We may have already reached peak Substack.
Third, much work goes into keeping the conversion rate high and the unsubscribe rate low. Authors have to give considerable thought into how much content to generate, why type of content to generate, when to publish the content, and how to make the emails worth opening and reading. If the author fails at any or all of these tasks, the subscriber number will go down. Authors will necessarily obsess over these matters, and I think this concern will necessarily impact the quality and quantity of materials produced. Perhaps some authors have figured out the right balance, but many do not. Some substacks will simply fade away in relevance, and readers may never know
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